Ahmed Bin Delowar Ahmed Bin Delowar

Staying invested during stock market downturns may provide better long-term returns than attempting to time market entry and exits.

Despite poor stock market returns for investors this year and continuous recession forecasts, most wealth management teams have consistently advised their clients to stay invested in stocks and weather the storm. Based on historical evidence, they believe that staying involved during stock market downturns can result in higher long-term returns than attempting to time market entry and exits.

This year's stock market has had one of the worst starts in history, The Nasdaq Composite is still in a bear market, down 28.5 percent year to date, and the S&P 500 down more than 20% year to date. Many investors have been left wondering when they would be able to buy the dip. As the second quarter comes to a close on Thursday, investors are still looking for the bottom of a ferocious market sell-off. Concerns about a weakening economy and rapid rate of inflation absorbed much of the first half of 2022, and recession concerns are mounting.

On Wednesday, US equities traded volatile intraday as investors remained concerned about rising indicators of a slowdown in US economic growth. Wednesday's changes followed sharp losses for the main averages the day before. On Tuesday, the Dow fell more than 1.5 percent, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite fell 2% and 3%, respectively. The benchmarks all began the morning with robust gains, but poor consumer confidence data halted those gains and sent markets plunging.

The S&P 500 fell in volatile trade, extending losses from the previous day's 2% drop.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained on Wednesday, after the previous session's unsuccessful attempt at a recovery.

The Dow Jones 30-stock index rose around 0.4 percent. The Nasdaq Composite, which is heavily weighted toward technology, was down around 0.1 percent.

The Dow and S&P 500's biggest gainers were technology firms. Amazon gained 2.2 percent after JPMorgan confirmed its overweight recommendation and Redburn began it at a buy. Meta Platforms, Apple, and Microsoft were all up approximately 2%.

On Wednesday, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester stated that if economic circumstances remain unchanged by July, she will push for a 75 basis point increase in interest rates at the central bank's July meeting. "I haven't seen the type of figures on the inflation side that I need to see to think we can go back to a 50 percent rise," she told CNBC.

Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, feels equities have more room to fall since many corporations have yet to revise their profit predictions following the Federal Reserve's decision to accelerate interest rate rises earlier this month. The Fed essentially raises the cost of borrowing across the economy, by raising the interest rates, which should lead to a decline in earnings.

She also advised investors to use maximum asset class diversity, a classic defensive investing technique, to protect investment portfolios. She advised investors to focus on investment grade bonds and cyclical industries such as small and midcap stocks in biotech, financials, energy, and industrials to outperform the S&P 500 through the end of the year.

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Ahmed Bin Delowar Ahmed Bin Delowar

Stocks rise on hints of reducing conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

On Tuesday, U.S. market index futures rose on reports that Russia was withdrawing some soldiers from near the Ukrainian border, indicating a de-escalation of hostilities between the two nations.

Worries about a Russian attack on Ukraine roiled markets around the world on Monday, with all three major stock indexes finishing lower for the third straight trading day, with the S&P 500 index posting its biggest three-day drop since October 2020, as US allies warned of an impending attack by Russian forces on Ukraine. Investor sentiment varied throughout the day on Monday as the Russia-Ukraine conflict unfolded.

According to RBC analysts, stock market dips before a conflict are similar to "growth scares." The S&P 500 index plummeted more than 19% from peak to trough during the 1990 Gulf War, a drop consistent with a recession that year. The S&P 500 fell 33% during the second Iraq war in 2003, when "investors were still grappling with the aftermath of the tech boom, as well as the accounting scandals that defined the early 2000s".

Russia's defense ministry stated that after finishing maneuvers, several troops in military districts bordering Ukraine were returning to their posts, easing worries of a clash in the region.

In premarket trading, large growth companies such as Tesla Inc, Apple Inc, Amazon.com Inc, Microsoft Corp, and Meta Platforms Inc surged between 1.6 percent and 3.0 percent. The Dow electronic futures rose 310 points, or 0.9 percent, the S&P 500 electronic futures rose 56.25 points, or 1.28 percent, and the Nasdaq Composite index climbed 268.25 points, or 1.8 percent, thanks to significant weightings of highly valued technology firms that are susceptible to market mood fluctuations.

After Russia announced it had moved some troops from the Ukraine border and downplayed invasion concerns that had unsettled markets in recent days, US and European stocks rose while oil prices dipped. However, it remained unclear if this was a transitory indicator of a substantial downturn.

Next-month European gas futures decreased 8.5 percent to €73.26 per megawatt hour.

On Tuesday, Asian stock markets fell and safe-haven assets such as gold climbed as investors considered the ramifications of a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine. After stock markets in the United States and Europe lost momentum on Monday, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific equities outside Japan was down 0.5 percent. Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 0.91 percent, while Australia's S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.51 percent. The Hang Seng index in Hong Kong fell 1.1 percent, while China's CSI 300 Index rose 0.7 percent, bucking the regional sell-off trend. As investors sought shelter in the classic safe-haven commodity, the stock market sell-off fueled by risk aversion helped boost gold to an eight-month high.

After falling nearly 2% on Monday, the Stoxx Europe 600 stock index rose 1.2 percent on Tuesday. The Russian ruble gained 1.7% versus the US dollar. The hryvnia, Ukraine's currency, increased by 0.9 percent. The FTSE 100 in London increased by 0.7%, while the Xetra Dax in Germany increased by 1.6%.

The price of haven assets declined, with the US dollar index down 0.3 percent. The yield on Germany's 10-year Bund increased 0.05 percentage points to 0.32 percent, moving in the opposite direction of the security's price.

According to Unigestion cross-asset fund manager, the Russia-Ukraine problem has arisen at an unfavorable moment for markets, who is pointing to estimates that the US Federal Reserve will hike interest rates seven times this year after holding borrowing costs near zero since March 2020.

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